Investigation · 2026 Betting on the Outcome — Prediction Markets and Insider Trades

Prediction markets — Polymarket and Kalshi — let people bet real money on real-world events: elections, wars, court rulings. After Kalshi won a 2024 lawsuit against the CFTC's political-betting ban, the sector exploded, and so did the conflict-of-interest problems. In April 2026 the DOJ charged a US Army soldier who helped plan the operation to capture Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro with five felonies, alleging he used classified intelligence to bet $33,000 on Polymarket that the raid would happen — cashing out ~$400,000 when it did. Kalshi fined and suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races; campaign staffers told NPR they make "thousands" betting on their own candidates. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are now exploring whether such bets break insider-trading law — a legal grey zone, since these aren't securities. The Trump administration embraced the industry (Donald Trump Jr. is a paid Kalshi adviser and Polymarket investor), and the platforms spent ~$1M lobbying in 2025. A new market in betting on outcomes that insiders can quietly shape.