Profits of War War Is Good Business — Defense Stocks and the Conflict Premium

When wars start, defense stocks rise — the relationship is direct enough that analysts call Lockheed Martin's share price "a barometer of geopolitical tensions." In the days after the October 7, 2023 attack, Raytheon (RTX), Lockheed and Northrop Grumman saw their strongest gains in years. Lockheed's stock nearly doubled across the three-year Russia–Ukraine war and the company posted record earnings in 2024. By Q3 2025, Lockheed and RTX both raised their profit forecasts, citing "surging demand for arms from conflicts in the Middle East and a protracted Russia–Ukraine war"; Lockheed alone won a $12.5B Pentagon contract for 296 F-35 jets. Brown University's Costs of War project documents the flip side: the public money flowing the other way, with Pentagon contracts to a handful of firms tracked across 2020–2024. The structural fact this entry records: the same events that produce mass civilian death produce shareholder gains, and the incentive runs accordingly.